Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 2.035461 2.698759 3.597446 4.934555 6.927775e+00 9.881466e+00 14.775863
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.429950 2.173550 3.375765 5.577604 9.798812e+00 1.825124e+01 38.762052
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.018109 1.724706 3.045433 5.948643 1.302064e+01 3.246566e+01 107.491115
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.820075 1.543100 3.105824 7.280341 2.071167e+01 7.662918e+01 529.037186
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.661229 1.364150 3.096936 8.684771 3.283117e+01 2.003065e+02 4939.423458
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.547589 1.229742 3.135424 10.573598 5.532155e+01 6.762686e+02 418291.333459
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.454228 1.099042 3.116493 12.582472 9.390319e+01 3.056040e+03 NaN
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.354730 0.903131 2.760556 12.744651 1.275778e+02 1.229626e+04 NaN
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.275430 0.728830 2.361481 12.151143 1.575800e+02 5.667391e+04 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.230201 0.638224 2.222453 13.150661 2.460636e+02 2.176095e+06 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.204788 0.599933 2.280430 16.137225 5.158757e+02 NaN NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.187804 0.582896 2.436106 21.180533 1.415477e+03 NaN NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.165081 0.537985 2.442001 25.695781 4.004058e+03 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.137495 0.460683 2.193944 25.932800 7.557274e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.113767 0.388854 1.917828 24.741103 1.245429e+04 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.101249 0.359165 1.892945 29.016578 5.682762e+04 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.090071 0.330140 1.847066 33.331848 4.314860e+05 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.081422 0.308747 1.840176 39.828424 2.976349e+07 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.073559 0.287439 1.813809 46.658593 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.063608 0.251361 1.620819 44.616189 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.054538 0.216501 1.408362 39.865525 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.049059 0.198276 1.335693 42.342238 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.046030 0.191734 1.371122 53.209794 NaN NaN NaN